Hi! I've analyzed natural gas extraction (Industry #30)for a 3-county region in western WY using analysis-by-parts. I'm concerned that the indirect output effect occurring through intermediate purchases is too low. Here's why. Direct output for this project is $144 million/year, of which 49.6% ($71.4 million) goes to intermediate purchases. Most of these purchases occur outside the region. However, by multiplying % of total commodity purchases for a specific commodity times its local purchase percentage for the 20 most important commodities, I estimate that at least 30% of commodity purchases (~$21 million) are made locally in the first round of indirect effects. As shown in the detail results for this scenario, the total indirect effect is $25.8 million and, of this, the value-added component is $15.4 million. This tells me that the intermediate purchase component of the indirect output effect is $10.4 million ($25.8 - $15.4). As stated above, I think the intermediate purchase component of the indirect effect should be at least $21 million. Do you agree that the intermediate purchases component of the indirect effect is too low? I've attached the summary results table and a table showing local effects for major commodity purchases. What other files can I send to help you trouble shoot?
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