Contribution Analysis of University

Hi, I will be doing a detailed contribution analysis of a university that is located in Southern Oregon. We will use accounts payable, student expenditure survey data, and other sources to customize our model. We have data sets for 2 counties and the State of Oregon. But to get started, after installing IMPLAN, I ran a simple contribution analysis using the IMPLAN model as it comes in the data and without customizing anything. My question is really, am I doing the right thing and how to interpret the results. I followed the instructions from this url: https://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=148 I loaded the two counties (Jackson and Josephine Counties) where this university (Southern Oregon U.) is located. I used only two counties for this "test run" and "pro forma" analysis to keep things simple. Under Explore Data Model, I found the 2013 OUTPUT for sector 473 ( Jr.Colleges, Unversities etc) to be $889,079. Then I found the TOTAL TYPE SAM MULTIPLIER to be 1.760645 I calculated its reciprocal: 0.56779736687 Then multiplied it by the original OUTPUT, and got: $504,973.46 Then I created a NEW ACTIVITY and selected INDUSTRY CHANGE. I created a NEW EVENT here, and put in the new OUTPUT number (value from previous step). I put that event in a NEW SCENARIO, and ran an analysis. Just as the instructions (from the URL posted at the top here) said, Total Output for your sector should be close to or identical to the original OUTPUT of the sector. In other words, running the scenario with the lower output that was calculated using the reciprocal of the Total SAM multiplier, the total output that I now arrived at is $887,872. The original total output was $889,079. This is "close to." So now I feel like I am on the right track and/or have completed a first pass "contribution analysis." Am I right to think this? Is this the basic contribution analysis for sector 473 in the two counties? The instructions go on for several more pages detailing several kinds of customization. But isn't this the first pass of a contribution analysis? And wouldn't the interpretation of these results simply say that there are the three general impacts and corresponding dollar amounts: direct, indirect and induced? One more question. The level of output for sector 473 as reported in IMPLAN's data ($889,079) is quite low compared to our university's payroll ($36 mill), estimated student spending per year ($50 million) and payments to local vendors in these two counties ($3.6 million in operations; $2.4 million in capital projects). Why is this? And in summary form, how is this actual data to be put into IMPLAN to make the model more accurate? Do you have a general instruction page that you can point me to? any help is appreciated, Torrey Byles
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  • Hi Torrey, We apologize you found an older page that should not have been available. This page is the correct page for describing the analysis methodology. http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=211 The word contribution is a bit complicated in this case, because as with many things in IMPLAN the way we use the word in spoken language and it's specific subset within IMPLAN are not identical. You can certainly use the single Industry Contribution Analysis method to look at an individual firm/university but this will provide a conservative estimate of the what the university does in the region. The other straight-forward alternative is to run an impact analysis using the standard methodology with your data and describing the results as what your university supports in the local economy. This will likely be a slight overestimation. The reason behind this is that the contribution method constrains the Model so that other purchases of that Sector cannot exceed the initial, unadjusted, Industry Sales value. This is necessary when you look at an entire Industry's production because the amount of sales cannot exceed regional Output (i.e. if you region produces $3MM of a commodity, your analysis is invalid if estimates $3.5MM of the commodity). But when a single firm is considered, unless it represents the entire Industry then purchases from other like firms in that Sector are a real possibility. So for example, a grain farmer will buy grain for next year's crop (Indirect) and we buy grains and product made from grains thus grain farming will be impacted through labor spending (Induced). Therefore, if the grain farmer is one of many farmers in the area, these feedback linkages are largely legitimate. But depending on the size of the farmer's operations in comparison to the total regional production some constraint over a standard impact analysis may be appropriate. Unfortunately where this line lies is really up to the interpretation of the analyst. Often in these cases we recommend running both methodologies with the understanding that the real contribution lies somewhere in-between the two result sets. Information about the total production of the Industry can be found at Explore> Study Area Data if you are wanting to compare it to your individual firms production. If you do choose to do the contribution analysis method for your analysis, it is important that you use the correct Multiplier in calculating your reciprocal. You described the Multiplier you used as the Total Type SAM Multipliers, you want to use the SAM Multiplier from the Detail Multipliers where you have selected the drop-down menu to be 473 and then you scroll through the Multipliers listed in the page until you get to 473 the value existing at this junction is the value you will want to use for calculating your reciprocal. This may or may not address you question about the data, but it will help us get you a better answer if this does not address your concern. 473 is a Sector describing private colleges. Is your university a public college? If so, it's data would not be included in Sector 473. In addition, it is important to note this Sector describes university operations only, so spending by students on non-University functions are not and should not be included in the University operations. Overall it looks like you are wanting to do Analysis-by-Parts which is a methodology that allows you to create your own input structure or change the ratios of Value Added factors. This article describes the Analysis-by-Parts methodology. http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=359 This article also provides a case study for looking at public colleges in IMPLAN http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=299 and this is a well done study by a University Professor that looks at using IMPLAN to estimate university operational impacts with several different methodologies that may be of interest to you as well. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p17708-2014-06-05.pdf
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  • thanks so much. I will check the links you provide. I will take the analysis by parts approach and use the correct industry code for public universities as you suggest.
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  • Hi thank you for sending the "Case Study 11: Impacts of a Public College" I working through instructions there. One thing I've noticed, however, is the industry codes referenced in those instructions are different than the ones that are showing up in my version of IMPLAN. For example, the author references Industry 438 for direct employment effects of public schools. But in my data set 438 is "insurance agencies, brokerage and related activities." The author refers to Industry 357 as Insurance Carriers, but in my data set, 357 refers to aircraft manufacturing. Has there been a change in code definitions since these instructions were written?
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  • Hi Torrey I apologize for the confusion. It appears as if you are using our new sectoring scheme, the 2013 data with the 536 industries. The Impacts of a Public College- Case Study was conducted with the 440 sectoring scheme. In the current Sectoring scheme the appropriate Sector(s) are...438 will bridge to 532 and 357 will bridge to 437 Thank you for pointing this out to us as we will be sure to get that article updated immediately.
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  • I am using the new sectoring scheme. Please tell me what number in the scheme corresponds to State Public Universities. Also Private Universities Is number 532 basically the number for State Public Universities, or something else? And, what is Private University number in the new scheme?
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  • Hi Torrey, Thank you for your post. The Sector for Private Colleges and Universities is 473; this is using the new 536 scheme found in the 2013 data set. However Public Colleges and Universities are not as clean cut as the Private Colleges. You can use the Private College Sector (473) as a proxy for Public Colleges/Universities OR you can use the Institution for State/Local Government Education as All public schools from elementary through college“ are fully captured. To access this Spending Pattern, in the Setup Activities Screen, select Activity Options > Institution Spending Pattern > State/Local Govt Education. As a note though, this spending pattern includes Intermediate Expenditures or goods that services from Kindergarden to College. There may be some commodities that do not apply to your University Impact. If you have data you customize this Spending Pattern to more closely reflect the College/University purchases of your university.
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