Domestic exports and total imports

I'm trying an experiment dividing the country into two regions, one large and one small. (I'm using the 2013 data and the online tool.) I'm looking at the commodity trade data in the two regions. For many commodities, the domestic exports for the large region exceed the total imports (foreign and domestic) for the small region by quite a bit. (I wanted to offer DC as the small region and the 50 states as the big region as a concrete example. You do see this happen there, but the differences are small. For parochial reasons, my first experiment used the Detroit MSA--Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne counties in Michigan as the small region, and the other Michigan counties, the other 49 states, and DC as the large region. In that case, domestic exports of the large region frequently exceed total imports of the small region by multiples of up to 6 times / by up to several billion dollars. In fact, Detroit's total imports are $218 billion, while the rest of the country's total domestic exports are $259 billion.) (I note that domestic exports for a model built from the 50 states and DC are not quite 0, but are quite small. Domestic exports for the standard US model are even smaller.) What's going on here?
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3 comments

  • Hi Dan! I do apologize for the delay of our response. We have a team that is looking into addressing the question that you posted. I apologize again that we do not yet have a response but we are in fact researching to provide you with an answer! Thanks Support Staff
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  • Hi Dan! I wanted to reach back out to you and let you know that we are still looking into your question. We haven't forgotten about you!
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  • Hello Dan, The good news is that there is nothing wrong with underlying data or the calculations, which was part of why it took us so long to determine what the source of the issue really was. The issue is arising with the accuracy of the database storage in the background of the Model. Because of the software's ability to only store 7 significant digits rounding errors can accumulate in the values especially where there extremely large numbers are concerned, as is the case in your study region comparisons. This is also exaggerated because, while each individual county's Trade Flow values are pretty precise, when you add many counties together, little imprecisions add up to be significant imprecision. We are currently testing a fix that will resolve this issue in the software, but we aren't sure exactly when the release will be. We would be happy to let you know as soon as it's available.
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