Population Change for Statewide Analysis


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    IMPLAN Support
    Hello, There is nowhere in IMPLAN to simply input a change in population and then see the impacts. Here are some thoughts and questions that might help frame your analysis: 1. Are these new residents coming in due to a new industry/business in the area? If so, you would want to get an estimate of that sector’s estimated annual sales or employment and set up the impact to that particular sector. This will capture the household spending of those new employees (first round induced effects), plus the industry’s purchase of inputs (first round indirect effects), plus all additional rounds of induced and indirect (i.e., input-suppliers’ purchases of inputs and their employees’ household expenditures). 2. If this is just a hypothetical exercise regarding general population growth in your area, a very simple approach would be to calculate the GRP per person from the Model Overview Screen and then multiply that ratio by the new, projected population number to get a rough estimate of what the new associated GRP would be. This assumes that the industry-mix, income per worker, output per worker, etc. would remain the same after the population growth. If, more than just knowing the total GRP value associated with the population growth, you want to know the household spending done by these households (i.e., you want more detailed industry-specific output and employment impacts plus tax impacts), we have household spending patterns that can be used for this purpose; however, in this case you would need to have some estimate of the aggregate income of these new residents (one possibility would be to use the average household size to translate your population figure into number of households, then multiply that number of households by the average or median household income in your region). 3. You may want to consider a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. CGE models are a more flexible form of I-O model and are more well-suited for entering population change as a starting point for an analysis; however, this added flexibility does come with added complexity and expense. We hope this helps. If you have additional information you can provide us regarding your data and analysis, we would be happy to assist further.
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