Hello forum, The purpose of my analysis is effectively to estimate the impact of a hypothetical shut down of the Iron Mining industry in Minnesota. My first question is about the employment numbers for Iron Mining in the model. Using the latest 2014 data IMPLAN provides, the model reports a value of 3,899 jobs for the sector, however, the tax filings from the mines themselves for the year 2014 as well as the CEW reports employment of 4,530 and 4,432, respectively. It is my understanding that IMPLAN primarily uses the CEW data as the basis for its industry employment figures, and also that certain among those jobs reported from CEW get re-allocated to other industries as appropriate according to your own job matrix. Am I correct in assuming this is the reason for the large discrepancy between CEW/tax data and IMPLAN? Moreover, is that information available as to which industries exactly are used and how many in each are re-allocated? I ask as it will surely appear discrediting when the mines themselves know their own jobs numbers and the CEW numbers are so readily available and that such a smaller number in the results will be questioned. Is there a clear way to explain this, is this already addressed in the model somehow that I'm not aware of, or what exactly can I do about this situation? I have also considered approaching the analysis as a contribution analysis (regardless of the above questions) but I was wondering if it makes any difference as far as the results to impact positively or negatively? Is the only real difference to change the sign, or would a positive impact for the same amount produce different results than a negative one? My original thought was to simply do a positive impact with the full amount of jobs represented since the contribution analysis would still only produce a result of the 3,899 jobs being lost - what would be the implications on the accuracy of the results in doing this versus the contribution analysis (other than the magnitude from using bigger numbers)? Another question I have was about the potential implication of mined ore transfers rather than sales. To elaborate, the largest mines in the state are owned by US Steal which produce iron for the sole purpose of being transferred within the company's operations to its steelmills, i.e. not selling the iron but just transferring it elsewhere to become a component of the actually sold product (steel) out of state. Is this a relevant concern or does it not make any difference as far as output effects that the ore itself isn't being sold? It doesn't appear that this has been factored into the output value for the industry so I would guess that it isn't, but I would just like some clarification/explanation on why/why not. My last question was about prices. I understand that IMPLAN is a static model, but is there any accurate way to compensate for the price change in iron since 2014 to bring the value of the output more into line with current conditions? My first thought was to alter the output of the industry (industry sales) by the amount of the price change - is this a reasonable way of doing this, or what would you suggest as the best course of action? Any answers/advice on the above would be greatly appreciated, Thanks!
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