Time duration to realize the impact

Hi, 1. How long it takes to realize the indirect and induced effect? Is there any way we can estimate this? 2. How sure are you in your impact answer? How do you answer this question? Any thought on these questions will be highly appreciated.
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  • 1) Estimates of employment is based on annual average output per worker. For a project, I would be comfortable in assuming that indirect and induced effects would occur within a year. From experience with multipliers, at least 90% of the indirect and induced effects occur within the first three iterations of iteratively calculating impacts (rather than using the mathematically derived instantaneous multipliers). For operational impacts (employment occurring year after year), even if the indirect effects dragged out for more than a year, a \"steady state\" is achieved that would smooth out the annual average to the estimated impacts. 2) The impacts are strictly based on the picture of the economy -ie, it is based on accounting. The closer the picture corresponds to the behavior of the affected industry the closer the impact estimates simulate the actual region response. Unfortunately, it is hard to gauge the quality of the estimates, because the economy evolves over time as a result of a myriad of economic factors.
    0
  • 1) Estimates of employment is based on annual average output per worker. For a project, I would be comfortable in assuming that indirect and induced effects would occur within a year. From experience with multipliers, at least 90% of the indirect and induced effects occur within the first three iterations of iteratively calculating impacts (rather than using the mathematically derived instantaneous multipliers). For operational impacts (employment occurring year after year), even if the indirect effects dragged out for more than a year, a \"steady state\" is achieved that would smooth out the annual average to the estimated impacts. 2) The impacts are strictly based on the picture of the economy -ie, it is based on accounting. The closer the picture corresponds to the behavior of the affected industry the closer the impact estimates simulate the actual region response. Unfortunately, it is hard to gauge the quality of the estimates, because the economy evolves over time as a result of a myriad of economic factors.
    0

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