Source of deflator estimates

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aheil

• July 02, 2011 00:09

I'm looking into adjusting some of the deflators in the model to reflect real conditions for 2008-present and our own regional projections for 2011+. The user manual says that the deflators come from BLS' growth model. Are these from the most recent projections (through 2018), or from an earlier model? Unless I'm reading things wrong, which could very well be the case, there's a noticeable disparity between the 2008-2018 projected growth rates and those in the CommonDeflators table. Thanks.

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  DougO

  • July 02, 2011 00:17

  For 2009, 1997 to 2008 deflator come from the BEA which has output deflators for their benchmark I-O sectors which we parallel in our 440 sector scheme. 2009 index is 1.0 and projected is based on the BLS implicit output deflators from their employment growth project. The 2010 to 2018 projections are from the 2008 to 2018 BLS projections (they are indexed to 2009). 2019 to 2030 are Excel extrapolations of 2016 to 2018 BLS projections.

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  aheil

  • July 02, 2011 00:31

  Maybe I have an old version of the deflators? I have output deflators of 1.0 for 2008 for all sectors. I updated IMPLAN not that long ago -- I have 3.0.10.2.

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  DougO

  • July 02, 2011 00:34

  There was an update for 2008 structural matrices related to deflators; however, I believe that 2008 was based on the 2006-2016 BLS employment growth model. Go to the V3 updates section of downloads to download the most recent 2008 structural matrices.

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  aheil

  • July 02, 2011 01:02

  I see the 2009 matrices. The CommonDeflators there have 2009=1, and the deflators match BLS' 2008-2018 projections. When I download this file, will IMPLAN automatically recognize it? I don't currently have a 2009 .mdb file in the System Data folder.

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  DougO

  • July 02, 2011 01:25

  Look a little further down the screen to see the 2008. The 2009 matrices will only work with the 2009 data files.

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  aheil

  • July 02, 2011 01:37

  I'm confused. When I open the .zip file at IMPLANStructuralMatrices2008, I see that in the CommonDeflators table the 2008 values are all 1, and the growth rates do not match BLS' 2008-2018 projections.

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  DougO

  • July 02, 2011 01:47

  Alex, the deflators are indeces pegged to 2008. 2008 is 100%. To approximate the BLS implicit output deflator to IMPLAN divide each year's BLS deflator by the 2008 BLS deflator. Or conversely to convert IMPLAN's deflators back to BLS multiply each year of the IMPLAN indeces by the corresponding BLS 2008 deflator. This will only approximate as 2008 IMPLAN deflators are based on the 2006 to 2016 data.

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