Household Savings / Capital: Difference By County
I am getting some big differences in induced jobs associated with a $10 M household income change between two adjacent counties for which I've run identical analyses (42 jobs vs. 26 induced jobs for the 100-150k HH income group). Comparing the Social Account Matrices for the two counties, it appears the difference is driven primarily by large differences in household savings rate (again for HHs with same income). The attached file shows the comparison.
I'd appreciate any insight on what might explain such a large difference in savings rate (this has a very large impact on the analyses we are running!). Also any comments or insight on why savings rates are so high particularly for one of the counties at approx. 44% of gross income would also be helpful.
Thank you!
David
[attachment:1]AC v. SC comparison.xlsx[/attachment]
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IMPLAN SupportHello David, It appears that your attachment has not come through. Please send it to support@implan.com and we will be happy to take a look. Please also provide the two county names and years. Thanks!0
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County names are: Alameda County and Santa Clara County California. Year for data is 2011. I'll send the attachment by e-mail, thanks.0
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IMPLAN SupportHello David, We do a RAS (a mechanical distribution to comply with control totals) to distribute personal income to the categories and to the state totals. Since personal income is much greater than the money income given by the income classes, the savings rate can be greater than would otherwise seem logical. To make an equal comparison, we would recommend using the tax rate and savings rates you are comfortable with and apply these to the new household income. Once these are removed you will want to run the result as an Activity Level for an imported institution spending pattern Activity Options>Import>Institutions>households 100-150k. Please let us know if you have any additional questions.0
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I appreciate the response but could you please clarify what is meant by this statement: "Since personal income is much greater than the money income given by the income classes...." I'll try the work around you suggest. Thanks0
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David, The spending patterns are based on money income categories. There is imputed income and other sources that go into overall personal income. Therefore a household with money income of 100-150k (w2 income, investment income, etc) could actually have a much higher personal income. See the paper: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://implan.com/v4/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_docman%26task%3Ddoc_download%26gid%3D232%26Itemid%3D60&sa=U&ei=544CUvjGO4WGqgGa9YGwBw&ved=0CAcQFjAA&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNGKQtNIafuZc5wq9a7cSQ4s1MNHng0
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I am working with David (the original poster) and have some follow-up questions to the savings rate issue we've been struggling with. Here is what we've learned so far from you: Implan Forum 16349: We do a RAS (a mechanical distribution to comply with control totals) to distribute personal income to the categories and to the state totals. Since personal income is much greater than the money income given by the income classes, the savings rate can be greater than would otherwise seem logical. Jenny, IMPLAN: our 2011 U.S. model shows a 31% savings rate for the highest income bracket, which is more than double the 2010 rate of 14%. We don’t collect data on savings rates, but rather calculate savings as a residual – i.e., as the difference between all sources of HH income (labor income + transfer receipts) and all HH expenditures (PCE + transfers payments + taxes). So, is this correct: Savings as defined by Implan = Personal Income - PCE - transfers payments - taxes paid. 1) What is the driver of the jump in savings nationally between 2010 and 2011 for the highest income bracket? How can this be explained? 2) What could explain a large difference in savings rates between two neighboring and fairly similar counties? 3) In the above Savings equation, what data that goes into IMPLAN varies at the county level besides local tax rates? (this is perhaps another way of asking question 2.) 4) Are stock options, employee stock purchase plans, or capital gains included anywhere in the Savings equation above? Thank you in advance for your help.0
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IMPLAN SupportHi Harriet, It turns out that the number of households by income group from the new 2010 Census were not correctly incorporated into the 2011 IMPLAN data. We are currently re-running the 2011 models and will be sending you the new data as soon as they are ready. We sincerely apologize for our oversight and appreciate you bringing it to light. In response to your last question, if the stock options are exercised, then it counts as capital gains, which is part of Personal Income, and thus would be included in the Personal Income figure for that year - and implicitly, in the PCE, taxes, and savings for that year depending on how much of it they spent, as reflected in the PCE data. We don't collect specific data for stock options. Again we apologize for this issue.0
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Okay, thank you. Does this affect all counties or just Santa Clara? When would you expect the new data to be available? Thanks, Harriet0
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IMPLAN SupportHello Harriet, I apologize that we haven't gotten a response back to you yet, we are waiting to here back from the econ team. We will let you know as soon as we can. Please let us know if you have any additional questions. IMPLAN Support Team0
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