USDA NASS vs IMPLAN data & Total Output

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    IMPLAN Support
    Hello George. We would like to look into your region and the issue about the data. Could you share with us the particular region that you are working? Thank you.
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    gfrisvold
    Sure, The original data was Arizona data in general and Yuma County in particular. We discovered that the data for the following sectors was missing from the original 2011 AZ data: Dairy Cattle & Milk production Oilseed Farming Poultry & Egg Production You folks promptly sent updated data to my colleague Ashley Kerna here at the U of Arizona. I have attached a spreadsheet that shows the original ag sector output numbers for Yuma County and the corrected data we were sent last week. The NASS data for Yuma County come from http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Arizona/Publications/Bulletin/11bul/main.htm by clicking on "Cash Receipts: All Commodities by County" Cash Receipts for crops is $1,053,372,000 in 2011 (the IMPLAN data is set to 2013 values, which would inflate values). This isn't all that different from the IMPLAN total output value. The Cash Receipts for livestock is $209,433,000 which does seem to be quite a bit different from the IMPLAN numbers. Granted the IMPLAN numbers are for 2013 values while NASS is for 2011, but that would be a small difference. Further, the NASS data are listed as preliminary, but looking at past year over year revisions, these are the order of $1 million or so. Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on this.
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hi George, The attached file from [url=http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/us-and-state-level-farm-income-and-wealth-statistics-(includes-the-us-farm-income-forecast-for-2013).aspx#.UpTO-8STxCA]ERS[/url] is what we used to create the 2011 data for Arizona. As you can see in the file, In thousands: Cattle and calves = $816,172 Dairy products = $871,002 Poultry/eggs = non-disclosed Hogs = $63,999 Sheep and lambs = non-disclosed Miscellaneous livestock = $68,270 Thus, the sum of all disclosed livestock production in Arizona in 2011, according to the ERS, was $1,819,443 (thousands) which is also shown in the spreadsheet in the line labeled "Livestock and Products". Because the sum of the individual disclosed sectors listed above equaled the control total for "Livestock and Products" ($1,819,443 (thousands)), the non-disclosed sectors (Poultry/eggs and Sheep and Lambs), our data process gave zeros to both non-disclosed sectors (so as to keep the subsectors summing to the control total). However, looking at past years' values for those two non-disclosed sectors would suggest that they still exist in the region, so we are now questioning the ERS' control totals and are planning to change our processes to use historical trends rather than worrying about summing to the control total. As regards the $209,433,000, we're not sure from where the figure is being derived. The provided link is for Inventory, which is a different measure from Sales, so we would not expect it to be the same as IMPLAN values. Hope this helps. [attachment=459]CR0011AZ.xls[/attachment]
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    gfrisvold
    Thank you. The AZ aggregate number from the NASS AZ Ag Statistical Bulletin is the same as the ERS number of $1,819,443,000. The AZ NASS bulletin also reports livestock sales figures for each individual county. Adding up all the county numbers, one gets the same $1,819,443,000 as a total. The difference seems to be in where NASS allocates those livestock sales across AZ counties. I will contact the AZ NASS Field Office to try and find out how they get their county estimates. Thanks again, GF
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    IMPLAN Support
    Hello George, The AZ aggregate number from the NASS AZ Ag Statistical Bulletin is the same as the ERS number of $1,819,443,000. The AZ NASS bulletin also reports livestock sales figures for each individual county. Adding up all the county numbers, one gets the same $1,819,443,000 as a total. The difference seems to be in where NASS allocates those livestock sales across AZ counties. I will contact the AZ NASS Field Office to try and find out how they get their county estimates. Thanks again, GF We distribute state values across counties using the information from the latest Census of Agriculture. The NASS will differ county by county – but we can not use the NASS data as it is incomplete (disclosures) and does not have enough detail for the 14 IMPLAN ag sectors. Hopefully this helps.
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