Confused About Non-store Retailer Results
I am having some trouble understanding the results of a scenario that I am getting and hoped someone might be able to help interpret them.
The particular event that I am confused by is a -$2,475,363 change in industry 331. The margin is 35.9% which leaves me with an event total of -$888,655
When I run the scenario, I find that the direct effect of output is -$888,655 which matches the event total above. That part makes sense to me; however, the value added portion does not make sense. The results show that the direct effect of value added for the event is -$2,210,956 much larger than the decline in output.
If [i]output = intermediate inputs + value added[/i] then ([i]-$888,655) = intermediate inputs + (-$2,210,956)[/i] and therefore [i]intermediate inputs = $1,322,301[/i]
I am having trouble understanding how this makes sense. If the final sales of non-store retailers is declining by -$2,475,363 overall and -$888,655 after the margin, how could value added be declining by more… and, more importantly , why would intermediate inputs be increasing???
Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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Model area is CT statewide and 2012 data.0
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IMPLAN SupportHi Matthew. We ran 2012 CT as you state below (-2.475 million in sector 331). My direct output is like yours, but my direct VA is reasonable (less than direct output). We don't remember this ever being an issue but make sure you have updated your software. Then build a new CT model and retry the impact. If this is still an issue, zip up your model and e-mail it to support@implan.com. Let us know the name of the scenario giving the odd result. Thanks.0 -
I've sent the model because I have already tried that a few times.0
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IMPLAN SupportHi Matthew, Assuming that you want to maintain the default relationships between industry sales, employment, and labor income, input the industry sales change value of ($2,475,363.00) and apply margins. After applying margins, the software should adjust employment and labor income for you to the rates corresponding to the margined event value: -5.1 employment, ($227,314) employee compensation, and ($53,732) proprietor income. Once you have done this and analyzed the event, you should see value-added effects that are lower in absolute value than the output effects. We couldn’t replicate your results, but it looks like your model has industry sales direct effect of ($2,475,363.00) with applied margins, but did not adjust the associated employment, employee compensation, and proprietor income values to account for the margining. If you changed the employment, employee compensation, or proprietor income value after entering an industry sales value, the software should have asked whether you wanted to continue with a custom event in which the revised employment effect led to changes in direct employment and value-added only and added exclamation points to the event values. If you do want to alter the relationships among industry sales, employment, and labor income, you would see messages related to creating custom events. See this article for reference: http://implan.com/V4/index.php?option=com_multicategories&view=article&id=568:568&Itemid=14 Thank you!0
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