Questions on mining study
In conducting a study for the impact of the mining industry on three counties, is it best to calculate the impact of the industry on each county and add them or is it best to aggregate them into a region and look at the impact for the region?
Does the aggregation tool in your model account for the fact that there are differing percentages of workers in each county or does that matter?
Am I correct in understanding that mining supplies (equipment, hard hats, tractors, repair work, etc.) would be included in the indirect impact? It is often difficult to find jobs data for support services or transportation. If that that data is available should it be bundled along with the mining operations or would you compute the impact of mining operations and add the impact of the support activities and transportation?
Am I correct in understanding that mining products sold (electricity, wholesalers, retailers) would not be included in the indirect or induced impact? If I wanted to include them they could be added to the original impact. Is that a correct assumption?
In the event section of the model, the local percentage of purchases can be adjusted, the default is 100%. It seems like such an adjustment is not necessary because it would be built into the multiplier. What am I missing?
Thank you.
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Hi Gary. Thank you for your post. In regards to your 1st question, if you wish to see how all three counties are impacted by the mining industry, I recommend an MRIO (Multi Regional Input/Output) analysis. This will eliminate aggregation bias, the averaging of the underlying relationships used to form the Multipliers as the average is weighted. The MRIO allows you to demonstrate how an impact in your Study Area disperses into other regions and allows you to see how these effects in surrounding area create additional local effects. If you are wanting to see the impact that the mining industry has on each of the 3 CO counties: http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&layout=edit&id=460. Then you can export and sum the results of these Models. The advantage for the extra labor is that you will capture leakages that the single county Models would miss that move between the regions. You also would not have to deal with Aggregation Bias. Or if you want to see how the impact of the 1 CO county has on the other 2 counties: http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=832&Itemid=1605. In regards to your Employment question, no the aggregation mechanism doesn't it but the MRIO will capture the relevant relationships of Output per Worker and Labor Income per worker. You are correct that the mining supplies or expenditures(hard hats, repair) that make up the mining industry is an Indirect Impact. However tractors and other equipment that is purchased only once as a capital expenditure should be modeled in the software seperatly. Items annually re-ocurring are included in the mining industry's spending pattern. Anything that is a part of the mining process will be included in with the spending pattern. You can view what the spending pattern includes, Explore > Social Accounts > Balance Sheets > View By: Industry Balance Sheet > Commodity Demand. In regards to mining products sold, any inter business transactions will be captured in the Indirect effects. You can view the sum total of the Indirect spending: Scenario Results > Detail Summary. You can Model the Capital Expenditures if there is a reason to believe it was manufactured or wholesaled/retailed locally. There is also a separate support activities for mining, I would recommend looking at both spending patterns and decide what is most appropriate for your worksite. I am not sure if we are understanding but your comment of: "mining products sold (electricity, wholesalers, retailers) would not be included in the indirect or induced impact". If you are however referring to commodities made by the mining Industry these are forward linkages and are not captured in the impact. If you do want to look at capturing forward linkages (i.e. the coal is used for the production of X) we can help you with this, but this methodology requires additional steps to avoid double counting." LPP- Local Purchase Percentage- what % of your direct impacts is happening in the study region. The default set at 100% means that all of your impacts are happening in the study region.
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