Potential problems with sector #40

Hey IMPLAN, This summer, I ran into an oddity regarding sector #40 for some states. I ran into it the other day when I purchased 2012 data for CO and MI. For sector #40, the average output per worker is over twice the national average and out of line with the other construction sectors (especially sector #39) and with other states where this anomaly is not encountered. As a result, every million dollars in output results in about 2 construction jobs. This seems way too low. I emailed you during the summer and you reported that there was a problem with the preliminary government data. After a recent phone call with IMPLAN support, I re-downloaded what I thought was corrected data. However, the problem still exists. Can you please investigate? I have encountered this problem for MA, PA, WA, MO, CO, and MI.
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  • Thank you for following up on this issue. In the second release the 2012 data, the new employment values somehow did not get transferred for government sectors as well as the construction sectors. Below we have pasted the old and new U.S. values and the ratio between the two, which can be used to update your Employment data for these sectors in other states if you so desire. Some things to keep in mind: 1. This issue involves Employment only – all Output, Income, etc. figures are correct. 2. This does not affect these sectors’ multipliers except for the direct part of the Employment multipliers. This is because Employment itself does not generate additional impacts – rather, it is the Intermediate Expenditures that generate induced effects and Labor Income that generates induced effects. Employment is merely descriptive. [table style="width:100%"] [tr] [td]Sector Number[/td] [td]Sector Name[/td] [td]Old Employment[/td] [td]New Employment[/td] [td]Fix Ratio[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]34[/td] [td]Nonresidential commercial & health care struct[/td] [td]1,511,140 [/td] [td]1,370,721 [/td] [td]0.91[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]35[/td] [td]Nonresidential mfg structures[/td] [td]423,819 [/td] [td]382,196 [/td] [td]0.90[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]36[/td] [td]Other nonresidential structures[/td] [td]3,192,964 [/td] [td]2,929,075 [/td] [td]0.92[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]37[/td] [td]Residential permanent site single & multi-family[/td] [td]724,590 [/td] [td]860,728 [/td] [td]1.19[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]38[/td] [td]Other residential structures[/td] [td]1,091,338 [/td] [td]1,374,183 [/td] [td]1.26[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]39[/td] [td]Nonresidential maintenance & repair[/td] [td]1,862,161 [/td] [td]1,746,654 [/td] [td]0.94[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]40[/td] [td]Residential maintenance & repair[/td] [td]40,959 [/td] [td]183,415 [/td] [td]4.48[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]427[/td] [td]Postal service[/td] [td]561,244[/td] [td]616,203 [/td] [td]1.1[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]428[/td] [td]Federal electric utilities[/td] [td]12,208[/td] [td]12,208 [/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]429[/td] [td]Other Federal Government enterprises[/td] [td]581,715[/td] [td]92,461[/td] [td]0.16[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]430[/td] [td]State & local government passenger transit[/td] [td]136,508[/td] [td]245,424 [/td] [td]1.8[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]431[/td] [td]State & local government electric utilities[/td] [td] 42,890[/td] [td]79,131[/td] [td]1.84[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]432[/td] [td]Other state & local government enterprises[/td] [td]470,875[/td] [td]801,445 [/td] [td]1.7[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]437[/td] [td]SL Government Non-Education Payroll[/td] [td]7,034,092[/td] [td]8,316,000 [/td] [td]1.18[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]438[/td] [td]SL Government Education Payroll[/td] [td]9,531,304[/td] [td]10,261,000 [/td] [td]1.08[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]439[/td] [td]Federal Non-Military Payroll[/td] [td]1,434,375[/td] [td]1,501,000 [/td] [td]1.05[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]440[/td] [td]Federal Military Payroll[/td] [td]2,095,000[/td] [td]2,281,000 [/td] [td]1.09[/td] [/tr] [/table] We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience – please let us know if you have any additional questions or concerns.
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  • How do I update my 2012 data with the corrected information? Is there a 3rd release of the 2012 data? Maureen Kaplan
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  • Hello, There was not a third release of the 2012 data. To apply the fixes, simply multiply your employment numbers for these sectors by their given fix ratio. Thanks! IMPLAN Staff
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  • Hello IMPLAN, I have several follow-up questions on the proposed fix: 1. Where is the correction applied? Is it relevant to national employment only, or does it affect individual state and county numbers? 2. If the correction needs to be applied to state/county data, what are the options available? We'd like to be able to find a fire-and-forget adjustment that will allow us not to have to apply adjustments every time there is new output. 3. I am attaching the structural matrix found with our version of IMPLAN. We've found that even though the national employment numbers are fairly close to the "New Employment" column from the post further up this thread, they don't necessarily match precisely. Please advise whether this is an up-to-date file, and if not -- how we can obtain one. Thanks, Jordan Marvakov [attachment=641]hf88e298.xlsx[/attachment]
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  • Hello, 1. You can customize study area data via Customize > Study Area Data 2. The fix will need to be applied to all regions. How many models are you working with? 3. The values in your Structural Matrix are from the first release of the 2012 data. Please follow the steps below to obtain the release 2 structural matrix. Please note, however, that the values used to create the fix ratios are from the stage/step in the data creation process where the pasting was to have occurred - so they will not match any structural matrix. The bad file is named IMPLANStructuralMatrices2012 Please follow your IMPLAN version's instructions (See Help>About for your version). [b]3.0 Appliance Version:[/b] Navigate to the appliance, click into the Implan System Data folder. Find the file above, and delete it. Replace it with this one downloaded from dropbox. Please extract or unzip before using. [b]3.1 Appliance-Free Version:[/b] Navigate to this folder pathway: C:\Users\User Name (the log-in name of the User to whom the software is licensed)\AppData (hidden)\Local\MIG\Implan\System Data, find the file named above, and delete it. Replace it with this one downloaded from dropbox. Please extract or unzip before using. If you aren't able to get this working, we would like to use the remote desktop web application to assist us in troubleshooting. 651-439-4421
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  • We have about 30 models which we use to produce multipliers. Is there any way to adjust the direct part of the employment multipliers (which is apparently the only number affected) to fix this issue?
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  • Hello, Some helpful things to note: 1. Since the New Construction sectors (34-38) are final demand sectors (i.e., they do not show up in any other sector's production function), the changes to these sectors will not affect any other sector's multipliers and can be ignored if you are mostly interested in multipliers. 2. Employment itself does not drive any indirect or induced impacts (the former are generated from Intermediate Expenditures, while the latter are generated from Labor Income). Employment multipliers are then calculated by multiplying the Output impacts of each sector by the Employment/Output ratios of each sector. Thus, the only way these sector's (or any other sectors') employment multipliers would change as a result of these fixes is if those industries made purchases from these fixed industries as part of their production functions. Thus, most multipliers would change very little from these fixes, so if you are primarily interested in multipliers, these fixes can probably be largely ignored. Regarding the larger fix ratios: 1. The largest fix ratio is for sector 40. Only 3 sectors demand this commodity and in very low quantities (to see this, go to Explore > Social Accounts > Balance Sheets tab, then select commodity 3040 from the drop-down menu and click on the Industry Demand tab). Thus, the change to this sector would probably not noticeably affect multipliers. 2. The next largest fix ratio is for sector 431. Since this sector does not produce a unique commodity (the commodity electricity is the same commodity whether produced by private firms or government), you will want to look at the demand for and production of commodity 3031. While that commodity is demanded by most sectors, you will see that sector 431 only produces roughly 6% of all electricity produced (flip to the Industry-Institutional Production tab to see this); thus, this fix would likely have no noticeable effect on multipliers either. 3. It is a similar story for passenger transit, though sector 430 produces roughly 19% of this commodity; this one would appear to be more important to fix. However, when I tested it with a U.S. model, the changes to the Employment multipliers were still pretty small - at the 3rd decimal point (see attached). [attachment=642]h90969ff.xlsx[/attachment] 4. The demand for 432 is so low that this fix would have a negligible effect on multipliers.
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  • I replaced my old structural matrix file with the file provided in this topic. I renamed the file, changing 2013 in the name to 2012 to make IMPLAN recognize it as the structural matrix. I imported and ran an array of 33 batch models that I have previously managed to complete successfully. At the "Accessing Trade Flows" step of the first model, IMPLAN returned an "Unable to read beyond end of stream" error message and shut down. Please advise how to rectify the situation.
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  • Hello, 2013 data and forward contain 536 Sectors. 2012-2007 data contain 440 Sectors. It sounds like you renamed a 2013 Structural Matrix to work with 2012 data. Rename or delete your 2012 Structural Matrix and please download the [url=https://www.dropbox.com/sh/763mi6bvzbn4f7g/AAAr6GkPffA5ODp52xLAdbEaa?dl=0]2012 Structural Matrix[/url] and give that a try by rebuilding your models.
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