Multi-Year Model
Hello,
I am modeling the 5-year impacts of construction expenses and jobs for a proposed sports arena and have a few questions about setting up the model and interpreting the results.
I read the Forum post about how tricky it is to report job impacts (https://implan.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&view=topic&catid=80&id=17787&Itemid=1679#17801); but rather than having the number of jobs broken down by year, I have only the total amount of jobs for the entire 5-year construction project.
First, do you recommend that I try to allocate the jobs into each year of construction and then run separate scenarios for each of those years? Or should I run one scenario for the combined impact of the construction project?
Second, if I choose the latter, how do I interpret the results? For instance, are the annual average jobs that are reported in the Impact Summary the total average annual jobs in the local economy that are supported by all years of the construction project? Would the same interpretation be appropriate for Output? Also, if I wanted to report the average number of jobs supported by each year of the project, would I divide the total average annual jobs from the Impact Summary by the number of years?
Thank you very much!
Andrew
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IMPLAN SupportHi Andrew. Thank you for your post. We would recommend that you model the construction impacts during each year of the project. This will allow you to see the project’s impact as they unfold. Typically, with many construction projects, the expenditures are not evenly distributed. Meaning that the majority of the expenditures will occur during the first two to three years of the project and declining in the latter years as the project nears completion. In terms of aggregating the output results from annual models, this should not be a problem. The IMPLAN software provides an easy way to aggregate results from various scenarios in your model. It is always better to have granular details and then roll up your results into aggregate results than it is to try and disaggregate the results. Concerning how to interpret and report employment, we suggest that you report jobs on a per year basis and not total jobs over the life of the project. It is often tempting to report total jobs. That is, if a project is believed to create 25 jobs over a four-year period, then the way to report this is to say about 25 jobs annually will result from this project. Some might be tempted to multiply 25 times 4 years and say 100 jobs, leading some to think that 100 jobs each year will be created which is not accurate. And yes, the annual average jobs represent the jobs created in the local economy that are supported by each year of the construction project? We hope this answers your questions.0
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