Question on the Induced Employment Generated

Comments

4 comments

  • Avatar
    leonaliski
    as a follow-up too, I would note there are some sectors in induced employment that changed far more than others. The big changes seem to be in Construction, Government (state and local), Professional Services, and Retail Trade. The overall number of jobs in the state are also relatively close, so the change is really in the Induced Employment Multipliers. We are just trying to understand what the change was, and why. Thanks,
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Good Morning Leon, Thank you for your post! So that we can replicate your study, could you verify that you are using the TX state total file. Could you also let us know the sectors you are using for each data year. Thank you!
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    leonaliski
    Yes, we are using the Texas 2010 State model. I figured something out already that helps. I needed to rebuild the model after lines 437 and 438 were checked under preferences for the multipliers (they were not checked when I first set it up). Thus, we were not generating any state and local government jobs for the induced effect. This helps greatly, yet still the jobs are lower for induced than in some previous years. We also think that because 2010 is a year that is in (or just coming out of) recession, that the consumer spending that would be reflected in the induced impact is probably lower than some of the years we have been working with. Is it reasonable to assume that recessionary effect would show up in induced impacts if the model year one in which consumer spending is contracting?
    0
    Comment actions Permalink
  • Avatar
    IMPLAN Support
    Hi Leon, Thank you for your post. In regards to your question about the recessionary effects. It would absolutely have an impact on the induced spending; specially in comparison to 2002. This would also have a significant effect on the Induced Effects. We strongly caution you about changing the default Multiplier build and endogenizing State & Local Governments, there are only a few rare cases where it is appropriate to endogenize this spending and you can grossly overestimate your results by doing this inappropriately. For additional information on when it is appropriate to include this spending please see this paper: https://implan.com/index.php?view=download&alias=137-type-sam-multiplier&category_slug=v2-papers&option=com_docman&Itemid=1480 Thanks!
    0
    Comment actions Permalink

Please sign in to leave a comment.