Historical Grounding of I/O models.

Hello, I'm working on a project that involves a very disaster prone area. If an industry was knocked out in a county, such as fishing, due to natural disaster impacts, would that be reflected in the model? or would some sort of historical grounding in past fishing seasons inform the estimation of the size of that industry in the model? Thank you, Peter
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  • Hi Peter, Thank you for your post! IMPLAN would reflect the complete removal of the Sector if you were using the same base data year that the removal of that Sector occurred. If that sector was removed then while it would still be a present sector in the Model, it just would not have any values associated to it, as it would all be 0. Since IMPLAN runs on a delay, are most recent data is 2013 and 2014 is to be released the end of this year. If the removal of the Fishing Industry happened this year (for example) it would be reflected until we release the data two years from now. There unfortunately would not be historical grounding in the Model, as for example, the 2013 Model would only reflect what happened in the 2013 economy. IMPLAN does sell Historical Packages, if you wish to see how the data has been used in the past. However IMPLAN Data isn't a time series so there would difference in Sectoring, data estimation methods, etc. Another alternative to this would be CEW data, which can function as a time series but is much more limited in scope: http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=328&Itemid=1693. I have also included this article as it gives an example of a Natural Disaster: http://implan.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=373 There are ways to measure that in the IMPLAN Pro system, to adjust the Model to reflect the loss, if the current data doesn't. Thanks!

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