Negative Tax for Construction

Thanks Michael!

Yes, I had seen that article as well but wasn't understanding. I went back to review again and found the TOPI that was negative for us.  From the two annual models I am presenting we see local/state taxes of $1,080,996.61 in 2019 which drastically reduced to $681,739.79 in 2021...and that was after an increase of about $2 million in spending. Yet, while we see a drastic decrease in local/state taxes, we see a large increase in Federal taxes and basically overall taxes stays about the same. I didn't see the article touch on this other than that it does say it can vary a lot year to year and is generally related to whether a sector is receiving subsidies from the government. Would I be right to assume this is somehow related to the Pandemic? I notice in another article there is a lag so maybe this 2021 is actually 2020 where there were significant subsidies with the Pandemic. Where else would you point folks to research or better understand drastic swings like this? Folks I am presenting it to are assuming there must be an error so am trying me best to help explain.

Thanks very much for your help!

Ryan

Ryan,

Would it be possible for you to share more information on how your Project was set up in IMPLAN Cloud? I.e. Region, Events/Event Values, Data & Dollar Year, etc. That way, I can attempt to replicate your Results and investigate what may be leading to these sorts of tax Results.

Best,

Michael Nealy

Yes, here you go:

2019

2021

Ryan,

Thanks for sending that over, I was able to successfully replicate the Results that you were noting. I escalated your inquiry to the IMPLAN Data Team, who wanted to provide the following information to help aid in your explanation of these tax values: 

"As that article mentions, there definitely can be swings between negative and positive values in a given year. Our process is generally as follows:

1. Start with the values from the latest Census of Government, inflated to the same year of the annual survey data (below).
2. Update values from the census where we have values from the Annual State and Local Government Finances Survey.

3. Replace and Insert values from the Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections, deflated to the same year as the annual survey data.

The lag in the survey data can vary from 1 to 3 years relative to the current IMPLAN data year, so the effects of the pandemic could certainly be coming into play. In general, it is good to keep in mind that IMPLAN tax reports are based on actual taxes collected (receipts). This is one reason why, for future analyses, many IMPLAN users choose to calculate their own direct taxes and supplement those with our indirect and induced tax estimates.

Regarding Omaha Bluffs in particular, the following counties come into play:

Thurston County

Harrison County

Mills County

Pottawattamie County

Cass County

Douglas County

Sarpy County

Saunders County

Washington County

All data sources for all of these areas combined form the MSA baseline for tax impacts, keep in mind that there is no singular piece of data that we can point to. It would seem that many changes over these geographies have resulted in the impacts that we are seeing – the data behind which has been verified programmatically and by hand.

I would highly recommend sending over the following article, as it gives the best breakdown of how our tax reports are generated: https://support.implan.com/hc/en-us/articles/115009674528-Generation-and-Interpretation-of-IMPLAN-s-Tax-Impact-Report. This is probably the best resource for understanding this type of data.

Hopefully this helps – please just let me know if any other questions arise."

Best,

Michael Nealy

Thank you Michael! Appreciate all your help on the matter. Regards,

Ryan