Hey IMPLAN Team - I hope you're doing well! I have a methodological question I want to run by you.
I'm in the midst of generating construction impacts in an Alaskan Borough. So as to not get too in the weeds with my inputs and their associated caveats, I'm going to provide a simplified example.
I ran an industry output event for industry 55 - Construction of new commercial structures, including farm structures. The value for the event is $10 million. The associated State & Local (S&L) tax impacts are negative for the 2021 data year (the latest data available at the time of my analysis). The direct impacts are negative, while the indirect and induced impacts are positive; however, the negative direct impacts are larger than the sum of the indirect and induced impacts, which results in an overall negative S&L tax impact.
If I run the same event described above using the 2019 data year, the S&L tax impacts are positive. There are no negative directs for any of the sub-local regional details.
This leads to my question. Is it reasonable (or methodologically sound) to report to my client the economic impacts using 2021 economic data and the associated tax impacts using 2019 economic data? If so, I will certainly caveat this distinction in my write-up.
Ultimately, I think it might be difficult to explain the negative tax impacts to my client. My hunch is that PPP loans might be generating the negative tax impacts, at least in part, in 2021 (this is speculation on my part; I don't have a clear sense of what could be generating negative tax impacts in a construction industry). In an ideal world, I'd wait until the 2022 economic data are released and then re-run my analysis to see if the negative tax impacts persist or diminish, but I don't have time to wait until the data's official release in December 2023.
I'd very much appreciate any insights or thoughts you can offer me on this line of inquiry!
Thank you so much,
Ryan
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