Best practices for modeling new manfaucturing plant over a 5 year period
This might be tough to explain in a post, but I'll try.
I have five years of projections that include output (revenue net changes in inventory), wages and jobs. The client wants impact per year and total impact over the five year period.
The issue is jobs. Job growth is follows:
The problem is the aggregate results (all five years). It's giving me direct jobs of 1,622, which is the sum of all five years. Yet they only employ 445 people. The labor income figure for all five years divided by the 1,622 does give me an average wage rate consistent with the per year wage rates (if that makes sense).
What's the best practice with handeling something like this? How do I interpret that 1,622 (or what am I doing wrong?). Thank you.
Remember that Employment in IMPLAN represents an Industry-specific mix of full-time, part-time, and seasonal employment. It is an annual average that accounts for seasonality and follows the same definition used by the BLS and BEA. These are in essence 'job years', not necessarily individual jobs (one job could be counted each year for a total of 5 employment), so you could certainly report that Total Employment as such. Another option would be to derive an 'average annual employment' figure by dividing that Total Employment by the time horizon, which in this case would be 5 years (1622/5 = 324.4 average annual employment). That is likely what I would recommend for your Results, as I think it has the clearest interpretation - however, it would not be incorrect to report 1622 total job years supported across the 5 year analysis.
Hope this helps!
Michael NealyComment actions
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