Construction

It depends on how you set up the analysis. A couple of things to check first: 1. Did you use deflators when setting up the impact (i.e., did you set the Event Year to a year that is different than your model year)? If so, you can see the effect this will have on the direct effects by clicking the "Preview" button in the Setup Activitie screen. 2. Did you use deflators when viewing the results (i.e., does the "Dollar Year for View" in the Scenario Results screen differ from the Event Year)? If neither of the above is the case, then any addtional information you can provide would be helpful for pin-pointing the cause. For example, was this an Industry Change activity or an analysis by parts? Do you see values in the "Direct Institution Change" or "LPP Imports" boxes in the Scenario Results screen?

Hi Jenny, thank you for the response. Yes, we did set the construction to take place in 2013. Can you explain how this changes the numbers?

Further, what is the discount rate that is used?

The same model year multipliers are used regardless of the Event Year; it is the value applied to those multipliers that changes when Event Year changes. All the relationships in the multipliers are based on model year prices, so the direct effect applied to those multipliers also needs to be in model year dollars. This is what the deflators do - they convert your 2013 dollars to model year dollars before applying the value to the mulitipliers. Please note that you need to set the Event Year [u]before[/u] entering a value. You can then deflate/inflate the impact results to whatever year you'd like by changing the Dollar Year for View in the Scenario Results page. The Output Deflator converts the Industry Sales value to the year of the dataset, while the GDP Deflator converts the Value-Added values to the year of the dataset. As for the source of our inflators/deflators: The BEA has historical GDP and Output deflators which we use for past to current Output Deflators. For projections into the future, we use the annual rate of change from the BLS employment growth model. These are most closely related to the producer price index. The Output Deflators are specific to the industry/commodity while the same GDP deflator applies to all of the value-added components. You can see the deflator values in the Setup Activities screen whenever you change the Event Year.