Five Tariff-ic Ways to Look at Imports and Exports in IMPLAN

WHAT IS A TARIFF?

A tariff is defined by congress as “a tax levied on imported goods and services.” Their U.S. Tariff Policy: Overview document states that in recent times they are often used to protect domestic industries, advance foreign policy, or as a tool for negotiating in larger trade deals.

Before we dive into some ways to examine some potential changes to the economy from tariffs, let’s get the assumptions out of the way. All of the standard assumptions in Input-Output analysis will hold true. There will be no changes in prices, no substitution effects, and no assuming increases in domestic production. Of special note, the import and export percentage rates will remain consistent across all sub-national regions in the United States, although they will vary by commodity and the proportion of foreign exports/imports are regionally specific. And lastly, with every analysis of changes to the economy, there will be some industries that do well while others suffer. There are always winners and losers.

Much of how you proceed with poking around with IMPLAN data and analyses will depend on what question you are asking. Do you want to know the size of the manufacturing workforce in your region that is tied to foreign exports? Do you want to know how much the U.S. relies on imports of cell phones from outside the country? Do you just want to know what happens when the price for a certain item like eggs becomes cost prohibitive so users switch to an alternative like dying marshmallows for Easter? Here are some examples that will help you along the way. 

U.S. EXPORTS BY REGION

Exports by Commodity

There is a lot of data for each geography in IMPLAN in Region Details. The Commodity Exports table found in Region Details > Social Accounts > Reports > Commodity Trade gives the Domestic Exports (Commodities demanded by other places in the U.S.) and Foreign Exports (Commodities demanded by other countries ). 

Here you will see exports by Industry and Institution as well as if they headed to a domestic or foreign location. For example in 2023, the U.S. exported $2.7T in goods and services. The last column, Foreign Export Proportion represents the percentage of Total Exports that go to foreign countries (as opposed to other regions in the U.S.). 

Foreign Exports by Commodity divided by the Total Commodity Supply (found in Region Details > Social Accounts > Reports > Commodity Summary) yields the percentage of each Commodity that is exported from the region to a different country.

Exports by Industry

To look at the exports by Industry, you can head into Region Details > Industry Accounts > Reports > Institution Industry Demand. Dividing the Industry Foreign Exports by Industry Output (found in Region Details > Overview > Industries table) yields the percentage of each Industry’s production that is exported from the region to a different country. 

In the United States in 2023, just under 6% of U.S. production relied on Foreign demand. Here’s an example of how we’d calculated the percentage of U.S. Output that is supported by Foreign demand for a few Industries which shows the calculation of Foreign Exports/Industry Output in the last column.

You could take this one step further by coupling this data with Employment  (Region Details > Overview). By multiplying the percentage exported included in the table above by Employment, you get the number of jobs associated with foreign exports. 

U.S. IMPORTS BY REGION

To look at the imports by Commodity, you can head into Region Details > Social Accounts > Reports > Commodity Trade. On the second table, you will see imports by Industry and Institution as well as if they came from a domestic or foreign location (these are commodities sourced from other regions). The last column, Foreign Import Proportion represents the percentage of Total Imports that come from foreign countries (as opposed to other regions in the U.S.). Coupling the value for Foreign Imports with Total Gross Commodity Demand (Region Details > Social Accounts > Reports > Commodity Summary), we can calculate the percentage demand that is met by Foreign imports.

TRADE DEFICIT

A simple subtraction of Foreign Imports from Foreign Exports gives us an approximation of the net foreign trade balance where negative values indicate a foreign trade deficit (Region Details > Social Accounts > Reports > Commodity Trade). 

For 2023, the U.S. imported $3.5T in goods and services. If we couple this with the $2.7T in exports, we see a national foreign trade deficit of approximately $800B.

SUPPLY CHAIN

Using our International Data, we can see the trade between nations in any of the industries. How is $1B in car manufacturing in Mexico connected to the U.S.? Running an Industry Contribution Analysis in Industry 20 - Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers of $1B in Mexico and linking this to the U.S. via MRIO will show us. The results using the filters Region: U.S. and Group: Mexico are shown here. Note there is no Direct Effect here as the $1B event is assumed to be in Mexico. However, the production in Mexico supports over 1,200 jobs in the U.S.

We live in a global economy, so the cars made in Mexico are purchasing goods and services from the U.S. and many other countries. The Employment tab in the results shows us the details.

INCREASED PRICES & SPENDING SHIFTS 

The threat and execution of tariffs has an influence on price. When thinking through this, there are a few scenarios. As the price of a good increases, perhaps households will just stop purchasing a certain item, especially if it is considered a luxury item. Households could also substitute items, buying domestic beef instead of imported Mahi Mahi. Folks might keep their cell phones longer than usual because the higher price is budget prohibitive. And still maybe, if the price of cars skyrockets, families might choose to repair an older car instead of purchasing a new one.

As an example, we could say that Americans will purchase $1B fewer in cars while spending only $500M on repairs. A negative Industry Output Event in Industry 324 - Automobile and light duty motor vehicle manufacturing for $1B is paired with a positive $500M Industry Output Event in 494 - Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes to yield the net effect of this change in spending. This yields a direct loss of $500M in Output and a total loss of $1.8B in Output. Although there is a positive effect on Direct employment, the total employment sees a loss of 840.

THE EFFECTS OF STEEL TARIFFS ON OIL WELL DRILLING

To walk through an example of what a tariff on steel would look like for the oil and gas industry, check out our webinar where IMPLAN’s Vice President of Customer Success and Education Services, Candi Clouse, Ph.D., sat down for a conversation with Geoffrey Brand, Ph.D., an Oil & Natural Gas Market & Policy Specialist, who previously served as a Senior Economic Policy Advisor with American Petroleum Institute. They discussed Brand’s experience and outcomes using IMPLAN to advocate for the oil and natural gas industry, as well as his methodology applying impact analysis to other current events.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There are a lot of moving pieces in the national and world economy. Thinking through your specific question and how to model it using some of these ideas will get you on the right track. Remember there is so much opportunity inside IMPLAN to customize your industries and regions to answer many more questions!

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The Effects of Steel Tariffs on Oil Well Drilling

Written April 22, 2025