Industry Output Data

Data Team

June 27, 2017 17:38

OVERVIEW

In IMPLAN, Output or Total Industry Output (TIO) is the value of production that occurred during the calendar year. For industries other than wholesale and retail, TIO can also be described as annual revenues plus net inventory change. TIO for the wholesale and retail Industries represents the wholesale or retail margin, only; it does not represent revenues (sales) since these industries do not produce the items they sell. Industry Output is estimated from a number of sources.

NATIONAL INDUSTRY OUTPUT

With the exception of the farm industries and the commercial fishing industry, for which there is state-level raw data, raw Output data is only available at the national level. The raw data source for the construction industries and most service industries is the BEA's Annual Industry Accounts. The raw data source for most manufacturing industries is the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM). Both of these data sources are on a national basis and are lagged one year relative to the IMPLAN data year. These data are projected based on the change in employment and employee compensation from the previous year to the current data year. While the BEA Industry Output Series data for detailed industries is also lagged one year relative to the IMPLAN data year, the same data source has a non-lagged series at a more aggregate sectoring level, to which we control our projected values for the more detailed industries. Redefinition adjustments are also applied to Output estimates in accordance with BEA practices. Some special industries require information from other surveys and censuses, as described below.

OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION AND PETROLEUM REFINERIES

We use a combination of BEA Output Series data and physical production and prices data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the Oil and gas extraction and Petroleum refining Industries. While the EIA data are current to the IMPLAN data year, they are on a Commodity basis, whereas the BEA data (which are lagged a year relative to the IMPLAN data year) are Industry-based, which is what IMPLAN needs.

Because the price of crude oil is so volatile, growth in employment and labor income in this industry do not always reflect growth in output as closely as in other industries for which we use projected BEA Output data and whose products do not experience such price volatility. Thus, using growth rates based on employment or labor income to project the lagged BEA output values is not ideal for these industries. Instead, we use EIA data on the prices and physical production of crude oil and natural gas to project the lagged BEA output value for the Oil and gas extraction Industry and the Petroleum refineries Industry.

RETAIL

The BEA Industry Output series has a limited number of retail industries. Therefore, we apply the margin-to-sales ratio, calculated using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) which is lagged one year, to current year sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly time-series data for retail sales to get an estimate of current year retail margin. Note that the Output for the retail industries represent the retail margin only; it does not represent revenues (sales).

WHOLESALE

The BEA Industry Output series also has a limited number of wholesale industries. To produce a current year wholesale margin, we calculate a margin-to-sales ratio using the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS) and wholesale sales monthly time-series data. The survey data is lagged one year, while the sales data is current relative to the IMPLAN year. Output for the wholesale industries is equivalent to the wholesale margin only.

OTHER INDUSTRIES

National Output for the Owner-occupied housing and Tenant-occupied housing industries is set to the Personal Consumption Expenditure (Household Final Demands) values for owner-occupied housing and tenant-occupied housing from BEA NIPA Table 2.4.5. - Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Product.

Industries 527 through 530 (Used and second-hand goods, Scrap, Rest of world adjustment, and Non-comparable imports, respectively) are Commodities only; therefore, their TIO is zero.

Industries 531-536 are government payroll industries and whose TIO, by definition, is equal to Value Added.

STATE AND COUNTY INDUSTRY OUTPUT

For the industries for which we do not have state-level data, the first estimate of state-level TIO is calculated as Intermediate Inputs (II) plus Value Added (VA), where II is based on U.S. II-to-Employment ratios. This same method is employed to get first estimates of county-level TIO for all industries. State-level TIO estimates are forced to sum to the U.S. TIO values for each industry, after which the county TIO estimates are forced to sum to controlled state-level TIO values.

As mentioned previously, there is state-level raw data for farm industries and the commercial fishing industry. The sources of this data are explained below. County data are a function of state output per worker ratios applied to county employment figures.

FARM INDUSTRIES

We get state-level output estimates for the farm industries from the USDA's NASS Value of Production and ERS Cash Receipts data series. These state values are then distributed to the counties by using the ratio of county physical production to state physical production from the latest Census of Agriculture. Please see Special Industries in IMPLAN: Farm, Construction, Railroad, and Government for more details.